Ostersunds FK 1-2 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Malmo FF travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 July 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Ostersunds FK have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 0W 0D 3L from 3 Allsvenskan appearances (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jämtkraft Arena this season.
Malmo FF — All Games: 2W 4D 1L from 7 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.43 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Malmo FF have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Malmo FF away from home this season: 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.43 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ostersunds FK 1.00 PPG, Malmo FF 1.43 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Malmo FF trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 29% versus Malmo FF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ostersunds FK 29% | Malmo FF 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 0.96 xG and Malmo FF 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.814 / defence 1.493 | Malmo FF attack 0.824 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.112. Malmo FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Ostersunds FK games / 7 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 26% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 46%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Malmo FF 2.17. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Malmo FF as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 33% | Malmo FF 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 26% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Ostersunds FK 0.96 / Malmo FF 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.814 / def 1.493 | Malmo FF attack 0.824 / def 1.218 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Malmo FF xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 16 July 2020 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 2 Malmo FF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 26% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 2W-4D-1L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.81x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
26%
3.81
27%
3.65
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.33
1.37
Malmo FF xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
25%
3.93
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
7%
14.96
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.37 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 2W 1D 4L from 7 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Malmo FF, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 1L across 7 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Malmo FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ostersunds FK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Malmo FF's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Malmo FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.29 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ostersunds FK have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Early Season
Malmo FF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 games (1.00 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 2W 4D 1L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.00 PPG; Malmo FF away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2020, when Malmo FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
3
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Malmo FF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2021, when Ostersunds FK 0-3 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 33%, Malmo FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ostersunds FK and 33% for Malmo FF.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 67% of games; Malmo FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 67% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 33% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Ostersunds FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Ostersunds FK 1-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 0.96 xG and Malmo FF 1.37 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.81 / defence 1.49 against Malmo FF attack 0.82 / defence 1.22, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 26% | Draw 27% | Malmo FF 46%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 29%, Malmo FF 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.