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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Osters IF and Sirius share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Osters IF and Sirius drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.14 xG and Sirius 1.59 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.70 / defence 1.07 against Sirius attack 1.13 / defence 1.22, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osters IF 27% | Draw 25% | Sirius 48%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 70%, Sirius 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Sirius's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Osters IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights