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Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Osters IF 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat Osters IF 0-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 0.92 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.84 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Osters IF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.26 / defence 0.88, drawn from 13/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osters IF 18% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 58%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 44%, Mjallby AIF 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osters IF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.53 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights