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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Osters IF defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Osters IF beat IFK Varnamo 4-3 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.06 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.09 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Osters IF beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.69 / defence 1.08 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.74 / defence 1.16, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osters IF 34% | Draw 31% | IFK Varnamo 35%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Osters IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 40%, IFK Varnamo 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osters IF's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights