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Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Osters IF 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Elfsborg beat Osters IF 0-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 0.98 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.24 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Osters IF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.71 / defence 1.15 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osters IF 29% | Draw 30% | IF Elfsborg 41%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 70%, IF Elfsborg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.80 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights