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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Osters IF and IF Brommapojkarna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 19, as Osters IF and IF Brommapojkarna drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 0.90 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.65 / defence 1.10 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.18 / defence 0.97, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osters IF 20% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 55%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 40%, IF Brommapojkarna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osters IF's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.42 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights