🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Osters IF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat Osters IF 0-3 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.06 xG and Hammarby FF 1.13 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Osters IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.83 / defence 0.93 against Hammarby FF attack 0.97 / defence 0.89, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osters IF 33% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 37%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 70%, Hammarby FF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Hammarby FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.80 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights