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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Osters IF and Gais share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 10, as Osters IF and Gais drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 0.71 xG and Gais 1.27 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.62 / defence 1.09 against Gais attack 0.84 / defence 0.84, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osters IF 21% | Draw 29% | Gais 50%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 70%, Gais 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Gais's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.80 PPG, Gais 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights