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Prediction vindicated as Degerfors IF edge out Osters IF 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Degerfors IF beat Osters IF 1-2 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.58 xG and Degerfors IF 1.59 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Degerfors IF attack 1.02 / defence 1.18, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osters IF 38% | Draw 24% | Degerfors IF 38%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 42%, Degerfors IF 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osters IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.39 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights