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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Osters IF 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AIK Stockholm beat Osters IF 0-1 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.05 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.11 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Osters IF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.01 / defence 0.83, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Osters IF 34% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 37%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 70%, AIK Stockholm 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.80 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights