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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Orgryte IS run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IFK Norrkoping.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orgryte IS beat IFK Norrkoping 3-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Final, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.52 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.39 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Norrkoping landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.86 / defence 1.24, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 39% | Draw 28% | IFK Norrkoping 33%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 60%, IFK Norrkoping 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orgryte IS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights