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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Orgryte IS defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Orgryte IS beat BK Hacken 4-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.23 xG and BK Hacken 1.82 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BK Hacken outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against BK Hacken attack 0.99 / defence 0.87, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 25% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 50%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Orgryte IS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 54%, BK Hacken 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Orgryte IS's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

BK Hacken's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.51 PPG, BK Hacken 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights