Orebro SK 3-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 October 2020, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Orebro SK 1.40 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orebro SK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IF Elfsborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Orebro SK, 0 for IF Elfsborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jun 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 54% versus IF Elfsborg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 54% | IF Elfsborg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.36 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.106 / defence 1.215 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.957 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.363. Data: 22 Orebro SK games / 22 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 31% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 41%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | IF Elfsborg 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 60% | IF Elfsborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Oct 2020, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 31% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Orebro SK 1.36 / IF Elfsborg 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.106 / def 1.215 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.957 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.58
IF Elfsborg xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 October 2020 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg?
Orebro SK 3 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 31% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 0W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 0W.
What form are Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (1.11) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
31%
3.24
29%
3.50
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.95
1.58
IF Elfsborg xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
6%
15.83
10%
9.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.58 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orebro SK come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 6D 9L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Elfsborg sit at 1.64 PPG from 22 outings (8W 12D 2L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Orebro SK's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, IF Elfsborg have taken 1.82 points per game from 11 outings (5W 5D 1L).
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.55 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 games (1.23 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 8W 12D 2L in their last 22 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.64 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
IF Elfsborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Orebro SK's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
1
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 4 December 2021, when Orebro SK 2-3 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 54%, IF Elfsborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Orebro SK) and 46% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 36%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 54% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Orebro SK's recent games and 46% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orebro SK defy the odds to beat IF Elfsborg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat IF Elfsborg 3-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.36 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.58 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.11 / defence 1.22 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 31% | Draw 29% | IF Elfsborg 41%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Orebro SK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 54%, IF Elfsborg 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Orebro SK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.