Orebro SK 0-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm meet at Behrn Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 June 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.46 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.474 / away 1.359. Data: 0 Orebro SK games / 0 AIK Stockholm games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 13% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 58%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 7.69 | Draw 3.45 | AIK Stockholm 1.72. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (58%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Orebro SK's lower xG of 0.46 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jun 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 13% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 27% | xG Orebro SK 0.46 / AIK Stockholm 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.474 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.46
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.33
AIK Stockholm xG
27%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 14 June 2020 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm?
Orebro SK 0 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 13% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 58% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.46. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (0.85x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 20.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (18.0%), 0-2 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
13%
7.75
29%
3.49
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
22.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
0 – 2
14.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.46
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
1.79
1.33
AIK Stockholm xG
7.75
13%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.67
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
63%
1.59
Win to Nil
3%
29.23
37%
2.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 22.1 | 14.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.8%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 0.46 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.33 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
AIK Stockholm
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
1
Draws
2
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, AIK Stockholm have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2021, when AIK Stockholm 2-0 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
AIK Stockholm cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Orebro SK 0-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.46 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.33 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 13% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 58%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.