Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Malmo FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 3W 1D 6L at Strandvallen — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Malmo FF are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Mjallby AIF hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Malmo FF, with 2 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The historical record gives Mjallby AIF a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 52% versus Malmo FF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 46% | Malmo FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 0.89 xG and Malmo FF 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.798 / defence 1.231 | Malmo FF attack 1.038 / defence 0.735. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.269. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Malmo FF's defence strength of 0.735 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Mjallby AIF games / 50 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 19% | Draw 28% | Malmo FF 53%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | Malmo FF 1.89. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Mjallby AIF dominate the H2H record, yet Malmo FF are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Malmo FF at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 30% | Malmo FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 19% | Draw 28% | Malmo FF 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Mjallby AIF 0.89 / Malmo FF 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.798 / def 1.231 | Malmo FF attack 1.038 / def 0.735 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Malmo FF xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Strandvallen.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 19% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
Record (10 meetings): Mjallby AIF 6W | Draws 2 | Malmo FF 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (0.80) and Malmo FF's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
19%
5.21
28%
3.61
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.52
1.62
Malmo FF xG
5.21
19%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
4%
26.40
22%
4.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 13.1 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.62 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 50 games, going 28W 12D 10L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.58 PPG from 50 outings (22W 13D 15L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.92 PPG, Malmo FF on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 14W 5D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.76 points per game from 25 outings (12W 8D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.58 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Malmo FF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 28W 12D 10L in their last 50 games (1.92 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 22W 13D 15L in their last 50 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Malmo FF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.88 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mjallby AIF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 6, Malmo FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 44%, Malmo FF 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Mjallby AIF) and 40% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Malmo FF in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 48% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 40% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.