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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IFK Varnamo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat IFK Varnamo 2-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 2.20 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.72 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.26 / defence 0.68 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.79 / defence 1.33, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 71% | Draw 18% | IFK Varnamo 11%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 48%, IFK Varnamo 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights