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Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out IFK Norrkoping 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat IFK Norrkoping 2-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.73 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.86 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.97 / defence 0.68 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 57% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 18%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 49%, IFK Norrkoping 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights