Mjallby AIF 1-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 30 August 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 3D 2L this season (8 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 0W 8D 2L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing away from home: 1W 6D 1L across 8 road games this term (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 0.80 for IFK Goteborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Mjallby AIF register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, IFK Goteborg in 88%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjallby AIF 65% and IFK Goteborg 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 59% | IFK Goteborg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.43 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.096 / defence 1.371 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.822 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.363. Data: 17 Mjallby AIF games / 17 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 40%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Goteborg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 75% | IFK Goteborg 88% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.43 / IFK Goteborg 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.096 / def 1.371 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.822 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.54
IFK Goteborg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 30 August 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 35% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 0W-8D-2L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 1.10x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.82x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
35%
2.88
26%
3.91
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.96
1.54
IFK Goteborg xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
7%
13.36
10%
10.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.3 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.54 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 6W 5D 6L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 2W 10D 5L from 17 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mjallby AIF are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Goteborg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 6D 1L from 8 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.18 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; IFK Goteborg in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 6W 5D 6L in their last 17 games (1.35 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 10D 5L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.50 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Mjallby AIF, 88% for IFK Goteborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Mjallby AIF and 50% for IFK Goteborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Mjallby AIF's games and 88% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 50% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 18, as Mjallby AIF and IFK Goteborg drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.43 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.54 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.10 / defence 1.37 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 40%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 59%, IFK Goteborg 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.