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Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out IFK Goteborg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat IFK Goteborg 1-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 2.12 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.14 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. IFK Goteborg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.36 / defence 0.89 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 1.09, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 59% | Draw 22% | IFK Goteborg 19%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 48%, IFK Goteborg 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights