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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IF Elfsborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat IF Elfsborg 2-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.45 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.72 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.99 / defence 0.70 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.76 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 55% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 18%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 51%, IF Elfsborg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights