Mjallby AIF 1-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Mjallby AIF, 3 for IF Elfsborg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 1–3 with IF Elfsborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 46% versus IF Elfsborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 52% | IF Elfsborg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 2.20 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.169 / defence 0.922 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.103 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.361. Data: 48 Mjallby AIF games / 48 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 56% | Draw 20% | IF Elfsborg 24%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | IF Elfsborg 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.58 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 80% | IF Elfsborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 56% | Draw 20% | IF Elfsborg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Mjallby AIF 2.20 / IF Elfsborg 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.169 / def 0.922 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.103 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.38
IF Elfsborg xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 56% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 24% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (6 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 3W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.10x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
56%
1.79
20%
4.92
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
3.58
1.38
IF Elfsborg xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
11%
9.00
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
3%
37.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.38 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 21W 7D 20L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 29W 5D 14L from 48 games, 1.92 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mjallby AIF.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.48 PPG from 23 outings (10W 4D 9L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 12W 1D 10L from 23 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.96 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 7D 20L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 29W 5D 14L in their last 48 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.48 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
3
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, IF Elfsborg have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 52%, IF Elfsborg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mjallby AIF) and 61% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 30%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 26% of games; IF Elfsborg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 44% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 61% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 19, as Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 2.20 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.38 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.17 / defence 0.92 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.10 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 56% | Draw 20% | IF Elfsborg 24%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 52%, IF Elfsborg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.