🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 10 as Mjallby AIF welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 19 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Mjallby AIF have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 2 for IF Brommapojkarna and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 50% versus IF Brommapojkarna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 48% | IF Brommapojkarna 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.92 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.300 / defence 0.785 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.250 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.361. Mjallby AIF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IF Brommapojkarna have an above-average attack strength of 1.250 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.785 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Mjallby AIF games / 38 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 51% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 26%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.85. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

IF Brommapojkarna lead the H2H ledger, but Mjallby AIF carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 90% | IF Brommapojkarna 80% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights