Mjallby AIF 3-2 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 23 as Mjallby AIF welcome Helsingborg to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 October 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 4W 4D 2L at Strandvallen — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Helsingborg have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Helsingborg have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mjallby AIF 1.30 PPG, Helsingborg 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Mjallby AIF, 0 for Helsingborg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Jul 2020, ended 1–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Helsingborg trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjallby AIF 64% and Helsingborg 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 54% | Helsingborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.76 xG and Helsingborg 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.055 / defence 1.324 | Helsingborg attack 0.821 / defence 1.504. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.358. Helsingborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.504 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Mjallby AIF games / 22 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 43% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 31%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Helsingborg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 80% | Helsingborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Oct 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 43% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.76 / Helsingborg 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.055 / def 1.324 | Helsingborg attack 0.821 / def 1.504 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Helsingborg xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 4 October 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 2 Helsingborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 43% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg?
Record (1 meetings): Mjallby AIF 1W | Draws 0 | Helsingborg 0W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Helsingborg's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
43%
2.35
27%
3.73
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
3.24
1.48
Helsingborg xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
5%
19.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.48 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 22 games, going 7W 7D 8L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Helsingborg sit at 0.95 PPG from 22 outings (4W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.27 PPG, Helsingborg on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 4W 4D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Helsingborg have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (1W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.09 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 games (1.27 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 4W 9D 9L in their last 22 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Helsingborg away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.45 PPG; Helsingborg away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Mjallby AIF have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
0
Draws
0
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, Helsingborg have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2022, when Helsingborg 0-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mjallby AIF at 73%, Helsingborg at 64%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Mjallby AIF and 64% for Helsingborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helsingborg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Mjallby AIF's games and 64% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 64% of Helsingborg's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Helsingborg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Helsingborg 3-2 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.76 xG and Helsingborg 1.48 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.05 / defence 1.32 against Helsingborg attack 0.82 / defence 1.50, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 43% | Draw 27% | Helsingborg 31%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 54%, Helsingborg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Helsingborg's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.27 PPG, Helsingborg 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.