Mjallby AIF 2-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Hammarby FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 June 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 0.88 xG and Hammarby FF 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.816 / defence 1.091 | Hammarby FF attack 0.907 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 0.838 / away 1.540. Hammarby FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Mjallby AIF games / 3 Hammarby FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 18% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 49%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 5.56 | Draw 3.03 | Hammarby FF 2.04. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jun 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 18% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Mjallby AIF 0.88 / Hammarby FF 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.816 / def 1.091 | Hammarby FF attack 0.907 / def 1.292 | league avg home 0.838 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Hammarby FF xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 June 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 18% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 49% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
18%
5.49
33%
3.01
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.41
1.52
Hammarby FF xG
5.49
18%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
4%
25.18
20%
4.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.7 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.52 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Pre-Season
Hammarby FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
5
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, Hammarby FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Hammarby FF 2-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 0.88 xG and Hammarby FF 1.52 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.82 / defence 1.09 against Hammarby FF attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 18% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 49%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Mjallby AIF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.