Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Hammarby FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 2.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Mjallby AIF's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 5 for Hammarby FF and 1 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 0–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 51% versus Hammarby FF 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 47% | Hammarby FF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.14 xG and Hammarby FF 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.796 / defence 1.233 | Hammarby FF attack 1.133 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.269. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Mjallby AIF games / 50 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 23% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 51%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Hammarby FF 1.96. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 30% | Hammarby FF 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 23% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.14 / Hammarby FF 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.796 / def 1.233 | Hammarby FF attack 1.133 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Hammarby FF xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Strandvallen.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 23% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Record (10 meetings): Mjallby AIF 4W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 5W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
23%
4.34
26%
3.83
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.91
1.77
Hammarby FF xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
4%
25.52
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.77 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 28W 11D 10L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 29W 9D 11L from 49 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.94 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.88 PPG from 25 outings (14W 5D 6L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 10W 7D 8L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 2.06 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Hammarby FF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 28W 11D 10L in their last 49 games (1.94 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 29W 9D 11L in their last 49 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.88 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
5
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, Hammarby FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 44%, Hammarby FF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Mjallby AIF) and 48% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 60% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 48% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.