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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hammarby FF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat Hammarby FF 3-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.02 xG and Hammarby FF 1.24 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.00 / defence 0.97 against Hammarby FF attack 1.09 / defence 0.79, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 30% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 41%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 48%, Hammarby FF 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights