Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Mjallby AIF (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Mjallby AIF at Strandvallen this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Historically, Mjallby AIF have had the better of this match-up — 8 wins from 9 meetings, with Degerfors IF managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 4–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.

The historical record gives Mjallby AIF a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 51% versus Degerfors IF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 47% | Degerfors IF 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.39 xG and Degerfors IF 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.796 / defence 1.233 | Degerfors IF attack 0.708 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.269. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.796 is below the league average — the 1.39 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Mjallby AIF games / 50 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 42% | Draw 30% | Degerfors IF 28%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Degerfors IF 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Mjallby AIF 30% | Degerfors IF 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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