Mjallby AIF 1-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Mjallby AIF (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF at Strandvallen this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Mjallby AIF have had the better of this match-up — 8 wins from 9 meetings, with Degerfors IF managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 4–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The historical record gives Mjallby AIF a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 52% versus Degerfors IF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 46% | Degerfors IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.30 xG and Degerfors IF 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.778 / defence 1.309 | Degerfors IF attack 0.677 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.276. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Mjallby AIF games / 52 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 40% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 32%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Degerfors IF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 30% | Degerfors IF 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 40% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.30 / Degerfors IF 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.778 / def 1.309 | Degerfors IF attack 0.677 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Degerfors IF xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 40% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF?
Record (9 meetings): Mjallby AIF 8W | Draws 1 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 0.78x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.68x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.55
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.43
1.13
Degerfors IF xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.9 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.13 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 28W 13D 11L from 52 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 29L across 52 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 14W 5D 7L from 26 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 9W 3D 14L across 26 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.00 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 28W 13D 11L in their last 52 games (1.87 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 13W 10D 29L in their last 52 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.81 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-1 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 8, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Mjallby AIF 1-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 42%, Degerfors IF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Mjallby AIF) and 62% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 54% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 62% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 23, as Mjallby AIF and Degerfors IF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.30 xG and Degerfors IF 1.13 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.78 / defence 1.31 against Degerfors IF attack 0.68 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 40% | Draw 28% | Degerfors IF 32%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 46%, Degerfors IF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.