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Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out BK Hacken 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat BK Hacken 1-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.52 xG and BK Hacken 1.05 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BK Hacken landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.01 / defence 0.70 against BK Hacken attack 1.06 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 30% | BK Hacken 24%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 51%, BK Hacken 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

BK Hacken's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights