Mjallby AIF 3-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Mjallby AIF welcome AIK Stockholm to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 August 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 2W 2D 2L from 6 Allsvenskan appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Mjallby AIF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 54% versus AIK Stockholm 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 46% | AIK Stockholm 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.29 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.938 / defence 1.447 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.673 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.286. AIK Stockholm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Mjallby AIF games / 13 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 31% | AIK Stockholm 34%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | AIK Stockholm 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 67% | AIK Stockholm 14%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 31% | AIK Stockholm 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.29 / AIK Stockholm 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.938 / def 1.447 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.673 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.088 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.25
AIK Stockholm xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 9 August 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Mjallby AIF 3 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 35% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
35%
2.82
31%
3.26
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.54
1.25
AIK Stockholm xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.25 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 4W 4D 5L from 13 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 3W 4D 6L across 13 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.23 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 0.92 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.33 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
5
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 67%, AIK Stockholm 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Mjallby AIF) and 33% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 33%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 33% of games; AIK Stockholm in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 17% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 33% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat AIK Stockholm 3-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.29 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.94 / defence 1.45 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.67 / defence 1.26, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 35% | Draw 31% | AIK Stockholm 34%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 46%, AIK Stockholm 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.23 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.