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Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AIK Stockholm.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat AIK Stockholm 2-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.50 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.79 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.15 / defence 0.73 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 54% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 20%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 56%, AIK Stockholm 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

AIK Stockholm's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.89 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights