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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Malmo FF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat Malmo FF 1-3 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.40 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.19 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.17 / defence 0.76 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.20 / defence 0.82, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 41% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 31%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 56%, Mjallby AIF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Malmo FF's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Malmo FF 2.04 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights