Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
56%
1.79
18%
5.56
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.2%
Home win
3 – 2
6.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.89
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
4.93
2.03
IFK Goteborg xG
Malmo FFDrawIFK Goteborg
1.79
56%
Home win
5.56
18%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
96%
Over 1.5
1.04
4%
Under 1.5
25.00
87%
Over 2.5
1.15
13%
Under 2.5
7.69
72%
Over 3.5
1.39
28%
Under 3.5
3.57
55%
Over 4.5
1.82
45%
Under 4.5
2.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
82%
BTTS Yes
1.21
18%
BTTS No
5.69
Clean Sheet
13%
7.64
6%
18.05
Win to Nil
7%
13.71
1%
68.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
λ Home (xG)
2.893
λ Away (xG)
2.034
Total xG
4.927
League avg home goals
1.697
League avg away goals
1.548
Malmo FF attack strength
1.306
Malmo FF defence strength
1.228
IFK Goteborg attack strength
1.070
IFK Goteborg defence strength
1.305
Data phase
CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A)
41 / 41