🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Malmo FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Malmo FF and IFK Goteborg finished level at 0-0 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.66 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.35 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Malmo FF fell 1.7 short of their projected output. IFK Goteborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.09 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 45% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 31%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 58%, IFK Goteborg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Malmo FF's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

IFK Goteborg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights