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Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out IF Elfsborg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Malmo FF beat IF Elfsborg 2-1 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.64 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.18 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.13 / defence 0.92 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 48% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 27%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 65%, IF Elfsborg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Malmo FF 2.15 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Malmo FF win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights