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Shock result as IF Brommapojkarna defy the odds to beat Malmo FF 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IF Brommapojkarna beat Malmo FF 1-2 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.43 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.06 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.08 / defence 0.80 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 45% | Draw 27% | IF Brommapojkarna 28%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 65%, IF Brommapojkarna 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with IF Brommapojkarna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights