Malmo FF 0-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Eleda Stadion plays host to Malmo FF versus Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 1 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Malmo FF (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Eleda Stadion this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Malmo FF are significantly better at Eleda Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Hammarby FF have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Malmo FF, 1.80 for Hammarby FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Malmo FF 0W, Hammarby FF 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 55% versus Hammarby FF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 55% | Hammarby FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.53 xG and Hammarby FF 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.122 / defence 0.886 | Hammarby FF attack 1.090 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.492 / away 1.165. Data: 53 Malmo FF games / 53 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 45% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 27%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Hammarby FF 3.70. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Malmo FF 50% | Hammarby FF 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 45% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Malmo FF 1.53 / Hammarby FF 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.122 / def 0.886 | Hammarby FF attack 1.090 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.492 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Hammarby FF xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Malmo FF 0 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 45% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Malmo FF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Hammarby FF?
Record (2 meetings): Malmo FF 0W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 1W.
What form are Malmo FF and Hammarby FF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.12x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (1.09x) against Malmo FF's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.60
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.65
1.12
Hammarby FF xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
6%
17.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Malmo FF and 1.12 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Malmo FF's recent record stands at 29W 12D 12L from 53 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 12L across 53 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for Malmo FF against 1.79 for Hammarby FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Malmo FF have managed 16W 6D 4L from 26 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hammarby FF's away record stands at 9W 7D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Malmo FF are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.85 scored and 1.17 conceded. Hammarby FF's attacking output running into Malmo FF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Hammarby FF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 29W 12D 12L in their last 53 games (1.87 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 27W 14D 12L in their last 53 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.08 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 4-1 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Malmo FF have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Malmo FF
3
Draws
4
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 3, Hammarby FF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 62%, Hammarby FF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Malmo FF) and 46% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 31%; Hammarby FF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Malmo FF's games and 50% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Malmo FF's recent games and 46% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Malmo FF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Malmo FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF and Hammarby FF finished level at 0-0 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.53 xG and Hammarby FF 1.12 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Malmo FF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.12 / defence 0.89 against Hammarby FF attack 1.09 / defence 0.91, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 45% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 27%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 55%, Hammarby FF 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Malmo FF 1.87 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.