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Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Malmo FF.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hammarby FF beat Malmo FF 1-3 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.40 xG and Hammarby FF 1.33 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 0.94 / defence 0.87 against Hammarby FF attack 1.11 / defence 0.97, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 38% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 35%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Hammarby FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 56%, Hammarby FF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Malmo FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Hammarby FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Malmo FF 1.93 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights