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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Malmo FF defy the odds to beat Gais 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Malmo FF beat Gais 2-1 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.12 xG and Gais 1.45 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Malmo FF beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Gais attack 1.05 / defence 0.82, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 27% | Draw 30% | Gais 42%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Malmo FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 56%, Gais 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Malmo FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Gais's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Malmo FF 1.88 PPG, Gais 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Malmo FF win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights