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Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Malmo FF 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Djurgardens IF beat Malmo FF 0-1 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.01 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.26 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Malmo FF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 0.96 / defence 0.83 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.11 / defence 0.75, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 29% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 42%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 57%, Djurgardens IF 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Malmo FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Djurgardens IF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Malmo FF 1.96 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights