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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Malmo FF and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Malmo FF and Degerfors IF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 2.35 xG and Degerfors IF 0.96 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Malmo FF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.06 / defence 0.80 against Degerfors IF attack 0.89 / defence 1.66, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 68% | Draw 18% | Degerfors IF 14%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 57%, Degerfors IF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Malmo FF's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Degerfors IF's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights