Malmo FF 5-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AIK Stockholm make the trip to Eleda Stadion to face Malmo FF in Allsvenskan (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Malmo FF (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Malmo FF at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
AIK Stockholm's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
AIK Stockholm's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Malmo FF's favour (2.20 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Malmo FF, 1 for AIK Stockholm and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Jul 2023, ended Malmo FF 0–0 AIK Stockholm — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Malmo FF — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
AIK Stockholm — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 48% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 62% | AIK Stockholm 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.56 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.072 / defence 0.721 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.005 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.312. Malmo FF have a tight defence (rating 0.721), which is pulling AIK Stockholm's projected output down. Data: built from Malmo FF's last 35 games and AIK Stockholm's last 35.
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 52% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 23%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.94 | Draw 3.94 | AIK Stockholm 4.36. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Malmo FF 40% (last 10 home games) | AIK Stockholm 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 6 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 52% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Malmo FF 1.56 / AIK Stockholm 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.072 / def 0.721 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.005 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.95
AIK Stockholm xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm FAQs
What time does Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Malmo FF 5 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 6) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 52% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.07x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (1.00x) against Malmo FF's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Malmo FF's last 35 games and AIK Stockholm's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
52%
1.94
25%
3.94
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.51
0.95
AIK Stockholm xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
5%
20.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.95 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Malmo FF come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 11D 16L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.43 PPG from 60 outings (23W 17D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Malmo FF's home form reads 19W 7D 4L across their last 30 home games, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.13 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Malmo FF are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.32 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
Malmo FF (Home) vs AIK Stockholm (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Malmo FF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm Form FAQs
What form are Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 33W 11D 16L in their last 60 games (1.83 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.13 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Malmo FF won Malmo FF 5-0 AIK Stockholm on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Malmo FF have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Malmo FF
5
Draws
1
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Malmo FF have won 4, AIK Stockholm have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Malmo FF 0-0 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 50%, AIK Stockholm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Malmo FF and 53% for AIK Stockholm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Malmo FF's games and 60% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Malmo FF's matches and 53% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 67% of AIK Stockholm's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Malmo FF run riot with a 5-0 hammering of AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat AIK Stockholm 5-0 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.56 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.95 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Malmo FF beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AIK Stockholm landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.07 / defence 0.72 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 52% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 23%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 62%, AIK Stockholm 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.