Kalmar FF 3-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 3 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF at Guldfågeln Arena this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Guldfågeln Arena this season.
Sirius (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Kalmar FF's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Kalmar FF 0W, Sirius 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Sirius — key trading statistics (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 49% versus Sirius 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 43% | Sirius 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.53 xG and Sirius 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.902 / defence 1.134 | Sirius attack 0.964 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.058. Data: 51 Kalmar FF games / 51 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 43% | Draw 30% | Sirius 26%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Sirius 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 50% | Sirius 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 43% | Draw 30% | Sirius 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Kalmar FF 1.53 / Sirius 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.902 / def 1.134 | Sirius attack 0.964 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Sirius xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Sirius kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Kalmar FF 3 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Sirius part of?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 43% chance of winning, Sirius a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kalmar FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
Record (2 meetings): Kalmar FF 0W | Draws 2 | Sirius 0W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Sirius (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.96x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
43%
2.30
30%
3.32
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.68
1.16
Sirius xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.1 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.16 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 16W 17D 18L from 51 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 18L across 51 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.27 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 5W 10D 11L from 26 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 6W 10D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.29 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 16W 17D 18L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while Sirius have gone 16W 17D 18L in their last 51 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Sirius away?
Sirius's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 0.96 PPG; Sirius away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sirius in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sirius go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kalmar FF
5
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 1, Sirius have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Sirius 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 46%, Sirius 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Kalmar FF) and 54% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 42% of games; Sirius in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 62% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 54% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Sirius in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Sirius 3-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.53 xG and Sirius 1.16 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kalmar FF beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.90 / defence 1.13 against Sirius attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 43% | Draw 30% | Sirius 26%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 43%, Sirius 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.27 PPG, Sirius 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.