Kalmar FF 1-2 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Ostersunds FK in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Wednesday 1 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 1.50 PPG across 4 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 0D 2L. Last five: L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 1.75 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Kalmar FF have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ostersunds FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games (0.25 PPG). Last five: L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Ostersunds FK have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Kalmar FF's 1.50 PPG return is 1.25 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 0.25 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Kalmar FF have seen both teams score in just 25% of their games, Ostersunds FK in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading & In-Play
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Kalmar FF 25% | Ostersunds FK 25%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 75% | Ostersunds FK 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.59 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 1.335 / defence 1.010 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.554 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.409. Kalmar FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — their λ of 1.59 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 4 Kalmar FF games / 4 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 54% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 16%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 1.85 | Draw 3.23 | Ostersunds FK 6.25. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalmar FF are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 25% | Ostersunds FK 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 54% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 46% | xG Kalmar FF 1.59 / Ostersunds FK 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 1.335 / def 1.010 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.554 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Ostersunds FK xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 1 July 2020 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Kalmar FF 1 - 2 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 54% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-W-W-L. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.55x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
54%
1.86
31%
3.26
16%
6.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.38
0.79
Ostersunds FK xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
6.41
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
3%
31.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.6 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.79 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kalmar FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ostersunds FK, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 3L across 4 games — 0.25 PPG, with L-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Kalmar FF by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ostersunds FK heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalmar FF have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Ostersunds FK in 25%.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Early Season
Ostersunds FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
Have Kalmar FF or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
2
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when Ostersunds FK 0-0 Kalmar FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Kalmar FF) and 25% (Ostersunds FK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Kalmar FF) and 25% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ostersunds FK in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 25% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 25% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ostersunds FK defy the odds to beat Kalmar FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Kalmar FF 1-2 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.59 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.79 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ostersunds FK outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.33 / defence 1.01 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.55 / defence 1.15, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 54% | Draw 31% | Ostersunds FK 16%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Ostersunds FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 75%, Ostersunds FK 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kalmar FF arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.25. Form was overturned, with Ostersunds FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ostersunds FK scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.