Kalmar FF 0-3 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 38%, yet in-form Mjallby AIF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Kalmar FF (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kalmar FF have posted 3W 2D 5L at Guldfågeln Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mjallby AIF are 0.60 PPG clear of Kalmar FF in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Mjallby AIF have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Kalmar FF's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mjallby AIF have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 59% versus Mjallby AIF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 59% | Mjallby AIF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.34 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.956 / defence 1.330 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.784 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.224. Data: 56 Kalmar FF games / 56 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 38% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 35%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Mjallby AIF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalmar FF are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 70% | Mjallby AIF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 38% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Kalmar FF 1.34 / Mjallby AIF 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.956 / def 1.330 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.784 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Mjallby AIF xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Kalmar FF 0 - 3 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 38% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (8 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 2 | Mjallby AIF 5W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.78x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
38%
2.65
28%
3.63
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.62
1.28
Mjallby AIF xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.28 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 19W 11D 26L from 56 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 21L across 56 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.48 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 11W 5D 12L from 28 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 12W 4D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.25 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 24W 11D 21L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.36 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
6
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 57%, Mjallby AIF 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Kalmar FF) and 43% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 39% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 43% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Kalmar FF 0-3 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.34 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.28 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kalmar FF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.96 / defence 1.33 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 38% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 35%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 59%, Mjallby AIF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.21 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.