Kalmar FF 1-3 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Guldfågeln Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Elfsborg (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, IF Elfsborg are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kalmar FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, IF Elfsborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kalmar FF lead 4W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 57% versus IF Elfsborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 59% | IF Elfsborg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.64 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.994 / defence 1.252 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.148 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.252. Data: 54 Kalmar FF games / 54 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 35% | Draw 23% | IF Elfsborg 42%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | IF Elfsborg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 70% | IF Elfsborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 35% | Draw 23% | IF Elfsborg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Kalmar FF 1.64 / IF Elfsborg 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.994 / def 1.252 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.148 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.80
IF Elfsborg xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Kalmar FF 1 - 3 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 35% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (8 meetings): Kalmar FF 4W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 3W.
What form are Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (1.15x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
35%
2.84
23%
4.40
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
3.44
1.80
IF Elfsborg xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
17%
6.05
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
6%
17.17
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.80 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 19W 10D 25L record — D-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 31W 9D 14L from 54 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (10W 5D 11L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 13W 3D 10L from 26 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.93 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 19W 10D 25L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 31W 9D 14L in their last 54 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.35 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 9 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Kalmar FF
1
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 5, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 58%, IF Elfsborg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Kalmar FF) and 58% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 31%; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 27% of games; IF Elfsborg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 46% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Kalmar FF's matches and 58% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Kalmar FF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Kalmar FF 1-3 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.64 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.80 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.99 / defence 1.25 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.15 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 35% | Draw 23% | IF Elfsborg 42%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 59%, IF Elfsborg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.