Kalmar FF 2-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Kalmar FF take on Hammarby FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Hammarby FF travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 May 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kalmar FF — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Guldfågeln Arena this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Guldfågeln Arena this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kalmar FF 1.50 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kalmar FF, 0 for Hammarby FF and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2020, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 93% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 50% versus Hammarby FF 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 50% | Hammarby FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.03 xG and Hammarby FF 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.658 / defence 0.771 | Hammarby FF attack 1.168 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.135. Kalmar FF's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kalmar FF's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Kalmar FF games / 37 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 34% | Hammarby FF 33%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Hammarby FF 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 30% | Hammarby FF 80%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 34% | Hammarby FF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Kalmar FF 1.03 / Hammarby FF 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.658 / def 0.771 | Hammarby FF attack 1.168 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Hammarby FF xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 May 2021 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Kalmar FF 2 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 33% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
Record (1 meetings): Kalmar FF 0W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 0W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (0.66) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
34%
2.95
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.05
1.02
Hammarby FF xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.34
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.02 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kalmar FF come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 10D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (10W 11D 9L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 1.03 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kalmar FF's home form reads 1W 6D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.03 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.33 points per game from 15 outings (6W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kalmar FF are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 10W 11D 9L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 0.60 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hammarby FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2024, when Hammarby FF won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 2-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 47%, Hammarby FF 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Kalmar FF and 93% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Kalmar FF's games and 73% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Kalmar FF's matches and 93% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kalmar FF edge out Hammarby FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Hammarby FF 2-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.03 xG and Hammarby FF 1.02 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kalmar FF beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.66 / defence 0.77 against Hammarby FF attack 1.17 / defence 1.11, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 34% | Hammarby FF 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 50%, Hammarby FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.03 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.