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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IFK Varnamo and Osters IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Varnamo and Osters IF finished level at 1-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.37 xG and Osters IF 1.07 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.88 / defence 1.19 against Osters IF attack 0.67 / defence 1.13, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 43% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 29%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 37%, Osters IF 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights