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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Mjallby AIF run riot with a 0-5 hammering of IFK Varnamo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mjallby AIF beat IFK Varnamo 0-5 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.83 xG and Mjallby AIF 2.00 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. IFK Varnamo fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF outscored their 2.00 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.94 / defence 1.26 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.15 / defence 0.60, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 13% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 63%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 48%, Mjallby AIF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Mjallby AIF's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights