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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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IFK Varnamo and Malmo FF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

IFK Varnamo and Malmo FF finished level at 2-2 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.86 xG and Malmo FF 1.73 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.77 / defence 1.17 against Malmo FF attack 1.08 / defence 0.81, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 18% | Draw 24% | Malmo FF 58%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 45%, Malmo FF 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Malmo FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights